After the Bitcoin Halving, the Price Will Not Pump Immediately
The Bitcoin Halving is only a matter of days away, but there are 2 facts you need to know about this Bitcoin Halving moment.
- Prices will not pump immediately after the halving.
- The percentage increase in Bitcoin prices from halving to the next halving tends to decrease.
New Bitcoin Rally Starts at least 4 Months After Halving
In fact, Bitcoin 'will not immediately pump' after the halving occurs. If you don't believe it, you can look directly at the historical data. To show the data, below we present comparative data on Bitcoin prices during the halving and a month after, based on the highest price range.
November 2012 Halving : $12
December 2012 : $13
Halving July 2016 : $670
August 2016: $610
Halving May 2020 : $9,600
June 2020 : $10,100
You can see from the halving data in 2012, 2016 and 2020 above. It can be seen that price changes did not occur significantly in the month after the halving occurred. Even in the 2012 halving, Bitcoin actually corrected after experiencing the halving. From the data here, questions may arise.
“So, when will Bitcoin rally after the halving?”
We will compare the growth of Bitcoin halving from period to period.
2012 Halvings :
We will try to explain this using a graph from CoinMarketCap, so it's easy and you can check it straight away too. In the 2012 Halving, Bitcoin price movements were not significant in the first month after the halving. Bitcoin's initial price of $12 in November 2012 only changed to $13 in December 2012. The new rally started in April 2013, or 5 months after the halving occurred. And the price of Bitcoin touched its highest price of $1,100 in December 2013. or 13 months after the Halving. If you pay attention, after the first rally in April to touch $142, BTC was corrected to $76 in July before finally continuing its rally until December 2013.
Don't Fomo! After the Bitcoin Halving, the Price Will Not Pump Immediately
Halving 2016 :
In the 2016 halving which occurred in July 2016, this year the price of Bitcoin even fell one month after the halving. Bitcoin was initially at $670 in July 2016, then became $610 in August 2016. And not only that, from July to December 2016 Bitcoin didn't move significantly, only rising from $600 to $900, or growing around 50% this year. The new rally started about 9-10 months after the halving in April 2017. Until it peaked in December 2017 with an ATH of $19,000.
Don't Fomo! After the Bitcoin Halving, the Price Will Not Pump Immediately
Halving 2020 :
The 2020 halving started in May 2020 when the price of Bitcoin was around $9,600. A month later, Bitcoin's movement was not very significant and only touched $10,100 in June. In this year's halving, the rally only started when it entered the October 2020 range, or 4 months after the halving. Until it reached its peak in December 2021 reaching $26,400. However, in this halving, after printing its new ATH in December 2021, Bitcoin experienced a fairly deep correction, before finally continuing its rally until the end of 2021, and touching a new ATH at $69,000.
Don't Fomo! After the Bitcoin Halving, the Price Will Not Pump Immediately
The percentage increase in Bitcoin always decreases with each halving.
Let's look at Bitcoin's growth by percentage, from halving to halving:
2012 Bitcoin rose about +9,000%
2016 Bitcoin rose about +2,000%
2020 Bitcoin up about +600%
This also needs to be noted, in the sense that our expectations also need to be adjusted from this data. If we look at historical data, perhaps the new ATH of Bitcoin that will be printed after the halving will not be 6x more than the current price. Maybe, it could only be x2 or x3 from the current price.
And the second note is, Bitcoin needs time to create a new rally after the halving. So don't expect, the halving that occurred in April will pump Bitcoin many times over instantly in May. What's more, always remember the 'Buy on rumors, sell on news' pattern. Maybe whales have accumulated a lot of Bitcoin in the previous months, and are targeting selling when the halving occurs. Just like at the time of the BTC ETF, smart money had bought Bitcoin long ago, when the ETF was approved it was the time for them to sell. Be careful not to become a liquidity exit for the whales.
So if asked whether Bitcoin will rise after the Halving? Definitely. But, not instant. It will take time for Bitcoin to continue its rally.
Will Bitcoin rise many times after the Halving? Yes. But, it won't be more than %600. If we measure it from historical data.
This article aims to straighten out perceptions and equalize expectations. So, bullish is fine. But you have to understand historical data too, folks!